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posted May 20, 2008 at 18:37 in NBA Betting Trends

BOSTON CELTICS (66-16 SU, 52-28-1 ATS) vs. DETROIT PISTONS (59-23 SU, 46-35-1 ATS)

BOSTON CELTICS -140

DETROIT PISTONS +110

The Celtics lost an early test this season when the Pistons beat them at the TD Banknorth Garden by an 87-85 score on December 19. But Boston came back to win sports betting decisions at home and in Detroit to capture the season series.

This is an interesting contrast between a Celtic team that is really playing as a group in the playoffs for the first time, and a Detroit team that is used to the playoff pressure. The nucleus of this Detroit team has won a world title and played in the NBA Finals as well. Meanwhile, Boston's "Big Three" of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce have never advanced that far individually. Boston has the home court advantage by virtue of having the league's best record, but the Celtics, playing decidedly weaker teams in the first two rounds in Atlanta and Cleveland, have yet to win a playoff game on the road.

That raises doubts about this team that are justified, since frankly, the regular season and the post-season in the NBA are two different propositions.

Statistically speaking, these are the two best defensive teams in the league. Boston led the league in opponents' field goal percentage (41.9%), while Detroit allowed the fewest points per game (90.1). Obviously defense will play the pivotal role, and what that amounts to is a game that is played at a more deliberate pace than usual (all three meetings went under the total). This may favor the Pistons.

As for fundamental advantages, Boston has its share. Garnett, when he's on offense, matches up favorably with anyone of the front court people the Pistons can throw at him, whether it be Antonio McDyess, Jason Maxiell or Rasheed Wallace. The Boston bench has also been a strength at times, and the Celtics, at their best, have an edge on the second unit, with the veteran presence of Sam Cassell at point guard, the offensive pop of Eddie House and Leon Powe, the floorburn defense and three-point shooting of James Posey, the defensive dirty work of P.J. Brown, and then surprising contributions from Tony Allen and Glenn Davis.

But Ray Allen was hot and cold in the Cleveland series. Tayshawn Prince is an All-Defensive team member that Detroit can put on Paul Pierce. Rasheed Wallace's shooting range is enough to draw Kevin Garnett outside to defend him. Also, Chauncey Billups has a big experience edge over Rajon Rondo at the point guard position. And unless Rondo becomes more of a consistent shooter from the outside, Billups may be able to play off him a little and defend the passing lanes.

You also wonder how judiciously Cassell, the only guy on the Boston roster with a championship ring, is going to be used. And House, who was the best Celtic of all in terms of plus/minus rating early in the season, isn't utilized with much consistency.

Detroit has had plenty of rest. That is a good thing for Billups, who had been bothered by a hamstring injury, and Antonio McDyess, who broke his nose against Philadelphia but roared back in the series with Orlando, scoring 17 points and adding 11 rebounds in the clincher. And even though Detroit is an experienced, veteran team, it's the Celtic stars that are aging a little (Garnett is 32, Allen 33, Pierce 30 and Cassell 38). Detroit has demonstrated many times in the past that it can win on the road in a playoff situation, while Boston has not.

I like the Pistons to close this series out at the Palace of Auburn Hills in Game 6.

JAY'S PLAYS: PISTONS TO WIN (+110)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)