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posted March 27, 2008 at 14:51 in NBA Free Picks

WHO: Dallas Mavericks (45-26 SU, 30-37-4 ATS) at Denver Nuggets (43-28 SU, 38-31 ATS)

WHERE: Pepsi Center in Denver

WHEN: Thursday, March 27 at 8 PM ET

BetUS NBA betting odds: Denver -8.5, Total 217.5

In the HEAD-to-HEAD NBA betting trends:

* DALL has won 19 of the last 25 meetings SU

* Eleven of the last 15 meetings have gone UNDER the total

* DALL has won eight of the last 12 meetings SU as the visitor

* DALL is 9-5-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings as the visitor

* Five of the last seven meetings in Denver have gone UNDER the total

* DALL has had the shooting edge in six of the last seven meetings

* DALL has had the rebounding edge in each of the last ten meetings

* DALL has made more three-pointers in five of the last six meetings

The Mavericks average 100 points a game on 46.3% shooting. They lead the league in free throw percentage (81.4%) and turn the ball over an average of 12.5 times a game. Also:

* DALL has covered one of its last five games

* DALL has won six of its last nine games SU

* DALL has played four of its last five games UNDER the total

* DALL has covered five of its last six road games

* DALL has lost seven of its last ten road games SU

Denver pushes the tempo; the Nuggets are third in the league in scoring, as they tally 109.5 points per game. They chalk up 9.3 steals per contest. Also:

* DEN has won six of its last eight games SU

* DEN has covered eight of its last nine games

* DEN has played nine of its last 12 games OVER the total

* DEN has won its last six home games SU

* DEN has covered its last five home games

* DEN has played five of its last six home games OVER the total

This becomes a very significant contest for both teams, as Denver now sits in ninth place in the Western Conference, a half-game behind Golden State (which also plays on Thursday) and two games behind Dallas, which will go the next week or so without Dirk Nowitzki, who has a high ankle sprain.

Dallas got lucky when Erick Dampier had 19 points and 17 rebounds against the Clippers, but in that one he didn't have to face Chris Kaman. It's not likely he'll dominate against Marcus Camby, who has had eight blocked shots (and has no doubt altered many others) in his two games against Dallas this season. But Dampier nonetheless remains a big body in the middle, something Dallas will need.

Right now the Nuggets are on a hot shooting string (50% or better in four of its last six games), while Dallas, with less three-point power, has shot only 43% in their last four. However, the defensive edge goes to Dallas, which held Boston and San Antonio to 34.5% and 33% respectively in recent games. And that defense could actually get better in the absence of Nowitzki, who doesn't really guard anyone. Meanwhile, Denver has permitted four of its last five foes to shoot 50% or better (two of them topped 60%) and have a minus-10 rebounding margin overt he last five.

Intensity levels will be up, and we feel confident enough to take points with the Mavs, the 8.5-point underdog in the BetUS NBA basketball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: DALLAS

You’ll find the latest 2007-2008 NBA odds and lines in the best online sportsbook, BetUS.com. Betting on NBA player and game props makes every aspect of the game exciting. Join BetUS.com today to bet on the NBA and make online sports betting work for you!

(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)