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posted April 25, 2008 at 16:45 in MLB Free Picks

BetUS MLB betting odds: Milwaukee -160, Florida +140, Total 9 (Under -115, Over -105)

Two teams with identical records will take the field on Friday night when the Florida Marlins (13-9) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (13-9) in a National League game that is scheduled to get underway at 8:05 PM ET at Miller Park in Milwaukee (natural turf).

Left-hander Scott Olsen (3-0, 2.60 ERA), who is off to a great start, takes the mound for the Marlins, while the Brewers will counter with right-hander Yovani Gallardo (0-0, 1.29 ERA).

At BetUS Sportsbook, Milwaukee is listed as a -160 favorite (Florida is +140), with a total of nine runs (the Under is -115, with the Over at -105).

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)

* FLA has won four of its last six games

* FLA has lost four of its last six road games

* FLA has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total

* MIL has played six of its last eight games UNDER the total

* MIL has won eight of its last 12 home games

* MIL has lost four of its last six home games

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:

* MIL has won five of the last six meetings

* FLA has won 10 of the last 15 meetings

* Six of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total

* Fifteen of the last 22 meetings in Milwaukee have gone OVER the total

The teams expected to be vying for the NL East title - the Phillies, Mets and Braves - have been struggling to get over the .500 level, so Florida now sits atop the division and after gutting the team a little in the off-season by dealing off Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, they have to be considered one of the surprising teams in all of baseball to this point. But people forgot that the residue is still there from a great rookie cast that had the Marlins in the NL wild card race into September under Joe Girardi a couple of years ago.

Scott Olsen was one of those rookies a couple of years ago, compiling a 12-10 record, and after an off-year in '07 he has come roaring back and mowing down hitters. The Marlins have won all of Olsen's starts, and in the last three starts he's had a 0.83 WHIP ratio, so he's been keeping the opposition off base, as one would almost count on from a hurler who has thrown 63% first-pitch strikes.

Twenty-two year-old Yovani Gallardo had a very solid rookie year for the Brewers, putting together nearly a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 3.67 ERA. He's had one start this year, and gave up just four hits and a run in seven innings against the Reds. However, he's thrown only about 40% ground ball outs in his career, which could make him a bit vulnerable against a Florida team that is ranked second in the big leagues in home runs.

These teams not only have the same record (13-9), but they have also averaged the same number of runs (4.77). It's not that we have anything disparaging to say about either of these guys, but in this matchup of two of the game's best young pitchers, we may shade it a little toward Milwaukee, since the Brewers have won six out of seven games in facing lefties this season, and we have a certain amount of intrigue about Gallardo, who has allowed more than four runs just three times in 18 career starts. So we will lay the -160 with the Brewers in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: MILWAUKEE (-160)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)