posted April 16, 2008 at 17:25 in MLB Betting Trends
MLB Baseball Betting - Tampa Bay at Minnesota
BetUS MLB baseball betting odds: Tampa Bay -125, Minnesota +105, Total 9 (Under -125, Over +105)
A pair of teams with the same record will get together at the Metrodome in Minneapolis (artificial turf) on Wednesday night, as the Minnesota Twins (6-8) play host to the Tampa Bay Rays (6-8) in American League action that will get underway at 8:10 PM ET.
Right-handers will do battle, as James Shields (1-1, 3.00 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay, while veteran Livan Hernandez (3-0, 2.57 ERA) gets the call for Minnesota.
At BetUS Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is listed as a -125 favorite (Minnesota is +105), with a total of nine runs (Under is -125, Over is +105).
Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)
* TB has lost seven of its last ten games
* TB has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
* TB has lost eight of its last 12 road games
* TB has played eight of its last 11 road games UNDER the total
* MINN has lost four of its last six home games
* MINN has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total
* MINN has played three of its last five games UNDER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD MLB betting trends:
* TB has won four of the last six meetings
* MINN has won 17 of the last 22 meetings
* MINN has won 11 of the last 13 meetings as the home team
* Five of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
On Tuesday, as predicted, Edwin Jackson has not able to maintain his hot start to the '08 season, as he allowed five runs in five innings in a 5-3 Tampa Bay loss to the Yankees.
James Shields was the only right-hander in the major leagues last year to have more than five times as many strikeouts (184) as walks (36). He's not off to those kind of numbers this season, but he's been a little stingier from the ERA angle. He struck out eight batters in 7-1/3 innings when he faced Minnesota last May 3.
Livan Hernandez, who ranked the top ten in innings pitched in seven of the last ten seasons (leading the NL in 2003, '04 and '05) is off to one of his best starts ever. The former NLCS and World Series MVP has won all three of his starts, going 21 innings and walking ONE batter. His WHIP ratio of 1.05 is sizzling, as is the 2.57 ERA. This is the kind of consistency Minnesota needs to replace holes in its rotation that were left when they dealt Johan Santana and Matt Garza.
Interestingly enough, Hernandez has been lit up the last four times he has pitched against the Rays (or Devil Rays, as they were known), allowing 43 hits and 19 earned runs in 23-2/3 innings.
Well, despite that, and the fact that the Twins have averaged just over four runs a game, we're going with Hernandez anyway, until he cools off, as we see him and the home team as a value at +105 in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: MINNESOTA (+105)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)
