posted April 29, 2008 at 16:41 in MLB Free Picks
MLB Baseball Betting - Pittsburgh at N.Y. Mets
BetUS MLB baseball betting odds: N.Y. Mets -250, Pittsburgh +210, Total 7 (Over -120, Under - Even)
After Monday's rain-out, the Pittsburgh Pirates (10-15) and New York Mets (13-11) will try to get things going again on Tuesday night when they meet up at Shea Stadium in Flushing, NY. Game time is 7:10 PM ET.
Right-hander Ian Snell (2-1, 4.45 ERA) will go for the Pirates, while ace Mets lefty Johan Santana (3-2, 3.12 ERA) is slated to pitch for New York.
At BetUS Sportsbook, New York is listed as a -250 favorite (Pittsburgh is +210), with a total of seven runs(Over is -120, with the Under at even money).
Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)
* PITT has lost nine of its last 12 games
* PITT has played 10 of its last 14 games OVER the total
* PITT has lost its last five road games
* PITT has played seven of its last eight road games OVER the total
* NY has played nine of its last 13 games UNDER the total
* NY has won five of its last six home games
* NY has played five of its last six home games UNDER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:
* NY has won four of the last six meetings
* The last six meetings have gone OVER the total
* NY has won five of the last six meetings as the home team
* Six of the last seven meetings in New York have gone OVER the total
Monday's game between these teams was a washout, and it will be made up on August 11. It also puts Ian Snell in against Johan Santana for the Tuesday matchup. Yes, on paper it would appear to be a mismatch. In none of his three start this season has Santana given up more hits than innings pitched. And every start has been a quality start, with the exception of a loss to Milwaukee on April 12.
But you know, Snell has gone at least six innings in each of his five starts. And although he had shown a propensity to give up the home run in previous major league action, he's allowed only one dinger in 30-1/3 innings in 2008. That's good news for a guy who has always gotten more fly balls than ground-outs.
The problem for the Pirates is that they have not shown much of an ability to play on the road, dropping their last five, and eight of 12 overall. Pittsburgh is also just 1-6 against left-handed starters, so we're very hesitant to back Snell, even though we respect him. The total might be the way to go, but surprise - it's the opposite of what you might think. Four of Santana's five starts have gone over the total; there have been 40 total runs in those five starts - 24 of them scored by New York. And Pittsburgh has supported Snell, by far, better than any of the other starters they have (which, by the way, doesn't include Matt Morris, who's been released).
Because Santana is in the game, the total is low and inviting, so we move with the "over" on the seven runs as they are posted in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: OVER 7 (-120)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)
