Up to MLB Betting Trends

posted April 22, 2008 at 15:12 in MLB Betting Trends

BetUS MLB betting odds: Tampa Bay -140, Toronto +120, Total 8.5 (Over -125, Under +105)

The Toronto Blue Jays (10-10) will try to creep over the .500 mark on Tuesday night when they go on the road - and to better weather - to face the Tampa Bay Rays (8-11) in American League action that is slated to get underway at 7:10 PM ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.

Jesse Litsch of Toronto (2-0, 4.60 ERA) will square off against Tampa Bay's James Shields (1-1, 3.52 ERA) in a battle of right-handers.

At BetUS Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is listed as a -140 favorite (Toronto is +120), with a total of 8.5 runs (Over is -125, Under is +105).

Here are some of the MLB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)

* TOR has lost four of its last six games

* TOR has played four of its last five games UNDER the total

* TOR has won four of its last five road games

* TOR has played six of its last eight road games UNDER the total

* TB has lost five of its last seven games

* TB has lost four of its last five home games

* TB has played five of its last seven home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:

* Ten of the last 11 meetings have gone UNDER the total

* TB has won four of the last six meetings as the home team

* The last five meetings in St. Pete have gone UNDER the total

Tampa Bay had a promising start, winning three of its first four games, but then the Rays tapered off, going on a losing streak of four games and never getting back over the .500 mark. Toronto, meanwhile, has had to go through a little bit of a soap opera with the release of Frank Thomas, the former American League MVP who was jettisoned after a .167 start, but was probably let go so the Blue Jays could avoid having a second-year option on his contract kick in.

Last season James Shields had a sensational ratio of over five strikeouts for every walk he issued. He hasn't been able to keep up that pace this season, although he has been serviceable, throwing 62% of his pitches for strikes. But opposing hitters have batted .298 against him so far, as opposed to just .247 last year.

Jesse Litsch has allowed almost 38% of the batters he's encountered to reach base, and he hasn't seen the seventh inning yet. But the Jays have supported him pretty well, scoring 23 runs in his three starts. Offense has been down around Toronto, however, with the Blue Jays crossing the plate just 14 times in their last five contests.

Interestingly, both of these pitches have good recent history over the opponent - Shields gave up just 14 hits and six runs in 19-2/3 innings against the Jays last year, while Litsch surrendered 18 hits and four runs in 17-2/3 frames against Tampa Bay. Considering the recent trends between these clubs, we're looking "total" here. So we'll go UNDER the 8.5 runs, as it is posted in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 8.5 (+105)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)