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posted May 12, 2008 at 15:31 in MLB Free Picks

BetUS MLB baseball betting odds: Cincinnati -190, Florida +160; Total 9 (Under -120, Over - Even)

The Florida Marlins (23-14) are as hot as the weather in Miami these days. On Monday night they'll look to continue that momentum as they venture to Ohio to take on the Cincinnati Reds (15-23) at the Great American Ball Park (natural turf). This National League sports betting contest is set to get underway at 7:10 PM ET.

Right-handers take the mound against each other, as Florida's Burke Badenhop (1-2, 6.57 ERA) faces Cincinnati's Aaron Harang (1-5, 3.09 ERA).

At BetUS Sportsbook, Cincinnati is listed as a -190 favorite (Florida is +160), with a total of nine runs (the Under is -120, while the Over is even money).

Here are some of the MLB Baseball online betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* FLA has won its last seven games

* FLA has won five of its last six games

* CIN has lost eight of its last 11 games

* CIN has lost seven of its last 11 home games

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:

* Six of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total

* CIN has won five of the last six meetings as the home team

* Four of the last five meetings in Cincinnati have gone OVER the total

Prior to the season, the proposition that the Florida Marlins would have the best record in the major leagues on May 12 would have been comical to baseball experts. yet here they are, with a three-game lead over the Mets in the National League East and recently overtaking teams like Arizona and Boston to nail the #1 overall spot, at least for now. These Marlins, who have relied an awful lot on offense thus far, have been stopping teams as well; on the current seven-game winning streak, the opposition has scored just 14 runs.

It would be presumptuous to say that Burke Badenhop has been a big part of that, but after three very rough starts, he has at least improved himself to the point where he has allowed just five earned runs, with 13 base runners, in his last 11-2/3 innings. And the Florida bullpen has been outstanding, with a 2.95 ERA, which is third in the majors.

Aaron Harang is probably the textbook example of a hard-luck pitcher. He has started eight games for the Reds, and seven of them have been legitimate quality starts, as he allowed three runs or less. He gives his team innings, and has chalked up a 3.6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In only one innings has he allowed more than two runs. But in those eight starts, his teammates have scored only 22 runs. Thus he's taken home just on win.

Certainly Harang presents an opportunity to back a pitcher who is much better than his record. But his team and the Marlins are going in different directions right now. The +160 price is attractive with Florida, but perhaps under the circumstances the better play here is to look for the low-scoring game (Seven of Harang's eight starts have been unders). And so we will go UNDER the nine runs, as is posted in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 9 (-120)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)