posted May 6, 2008 at 18:20 in MLB Free Picks
MLB Baseball Betting – Baltimore O’s at Oakland A’s
BetUS MLB baseball betting odds: Oakland -145, Baltimore +125; Total 8 (Over -120, Under - Even)
On Tuesday night, the Baltimore Orioles (16-16) will try to get themselves back over the .500 level as they play the second game of their series against the Oakland Athletics (20-14) who are again using smoke and mirrors to keep themselves in major contention in the American League West. This AL contest is scheduled to get underway at 10:05 PM ET at the McAfee Coliseum (natural turf) in Oakland.
Left-hander Brian Burres (3-2, 2.97 ERA) will be the starter for the Orioles, while Justin Duchscherer (2-1, 2.40 ERA) takes the mound for the Athletics.
At BetUS Sportsbook, Oakland is listed as a -145 favorite (Baltimore is +125), with a total of eight runs (the Over is -120, the Under is even money).
Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)
* BALT has lost five of its last six games
* BALT has won five of its last six road games
* BALT has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
* OAK has won seven of its last ten home games
* OAK has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
* OAK has played four of its last six home games UNDER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:
* BALT has won four of the last six meetings
* Six of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
* OAK has won three of the last five meetings as the home team
* The last four meetings in Oakland have gone UNDER the total
Justin Duchscherer has demonstrated a couple of things so far - that he has bounced back from both the hip injury that hobbled him last year and the biceps injury that landed him on the DL this season; and that he has made a nice transition to the starting rotation from a previous role in the bullpen. Thus far, in three starts, he has given up 16 hits and four earned runs in 15 innings, walking only three batters. Control is a key part of Duchscherer's game, and he is once again strong in that area.
If you were to cut one bad start out of Brian Burres' ledger, he would have a 1.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP ratio. So he's done the job for the O's. Burres did slump in the second half of last season, so we'll have to keep an eye on him, but he's allowed one run or less in three of his five starts.
That's important here because neither of these teams is scoring a heck of a lot of runs lately - the A's have plated 11 runs in their last four games, while the O's have 14 runs in their last six.
All of the trends are pointing in the direction of a low-scoring game, including the fact that six of the last eight meetings have gone under the total. We have two pretty effective young pitchers to work with, as well as two bullpens that have gotten the job done as well (Oakland is first in the majors with a 2.68 bullpen ERA, while Baltimore is 11th at 3.54).
We'll go UNDER the total of eight runs, as it is posted in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 8 (Even money)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)
