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posted May 2, 2008 at 13:19 in Other Articles

It's going to be a big online betting night for BetUS Sportsbook boxing bettors, as pugilism's undisputed champion of the box office - Oscar De La Hoya - returns to the ring after nearly a one-year hiatus, taking on former world champion Steve Forbes in a welterweight matchup at the Home Depot Center in Carson, CA (just outside Los Angeles).

This is a non-title fight, but is nonetheless scheduled for twelve rounds.

BetUS Boxing Betting Odds

Welterweights

May 3 -- Las Vegas

OSCAR DE LA HOYA -2000

STEVE FORBES +900

OVER 9½ ROUNDS -400

UNDER 9½ ROUNDS +250

An old friend of mine in the business once explained his rationale behind demanding a low-risk opponent for the fighter he handled, a popular former champion who was on the comeback trail at the time. "He can go against someone tougher when he has a fight. They're not paying us to have a fight. Here they're just paying us for an appearance."

For De La Hoya, Saturday night constitutes an "appearance." The "fight" is set for September, a rematch against Floyd Mayweather. Oscar is making a rare showing away from pay-per-view for this one, on the "regular" HBO. And it IS an appetizer; a spring infomercial, if you will, to promote the mega-fight in the fall. Oscar is one of the great boxing businessmen, and he's not going to let something like an opponent interfere with business

DE LA HOYA (38-5, 30 KO's), the -2000 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, has won a recognized world championship in six different weight divisions, from junior lightweight all the way up to middleweight. Yet I am amazed by some of my colleagues in the business who criticize him for "ducking" opponents. I can't think of who he's ducked. No fighter is going to be able to face everybody, and not every opponent is going to be in the prime of his career. But I can assure you that for the period coveringthe last 15 years or so, De La Hoya's roster of foes is about as comprehensive as it gets, from beginning to end - Jorge Paez, John John Molina, Rafael Ruelas, Genaro Hernandez, Jesse James Leija, Miguel Angel Gonzalez, Pernell Whitaker, Hector Camacho, Julio Cesar Chavez, Ike Quartey, Oba Carr, Felix Trinidad, Shane Mosley, Arturo Gatti, Fernando Vargas, Felix Sturm, Bernard Hopkins, Ricardo Mayorga, Floyd Mayweather Jr. There are a number of future Hall of Famers on that list.

FORBES (33-5, 9 KO's), the +900 underdog at BetUS, is just the kind of guy De La Hoya wants to fight right now; that is to say, someone who presents very little prospect of landing a dangerous blow. Forbes is not a puncher by any stretch, and in fact has stopped only one opponent who could be considered of quality. And even that was a glorified opponent-type: John Brown, a short fireplug of a junior lightweight who lost to Forbes for the IBF 130-pound title in December of 2000, dropped the rematch ten months later, and has gone 0-7-2 since. Forbes has not been a factor on the world scene for about 4-1/2 years, when he was a junior lightweight. To put things in perspective, De La Hoya outgrew that division back in 1994. Forbes was fighting at 130 as recently as August of 2004, his last unsuccessful title attempt. He has drifted between 142-149 since, and beat a couple of fair fighters at the welterweight level on the reality show "The Contender," but only because their skills were pedestrian by comparison.

He's got no real chance to win this fight, and if you think the sub-plot here, which saw Floyd Mayweather Jr. forcing his uncle and trainer Roger Mayweather to quit the Forbes camp because an accident might ruin the rematch and the payday that comes with it, has any bearing on what eventually happens in the ring, you are definitely watching too many episodes of "The Young and the Restless."

De La Hoya has the size advantage, to be sure; he should carry at least a ten-pound weight advantage when these guys step into the ring. But Forbes can use the aforementioned skill set as a way of extending the fight. It bears mentioning that he is an experienced distance competitor, having gone ten rounds or more on 16 different occasions and the full 12 rounds six times. He is fundamentally sound. And let's work some numbers for a minute. In the last nine years, De La Hoya has knocked out only Derrell Coley, Arturo Gatti, Yori Boy Campas and Ricardo Mayorga before the tenth round. Forbes is not a better fighter than that group, particularly at welterweight, but those guys were more aggressive, while Forbes is more cautious and therefore will have more of a propensity to go rounds.

And Oscar's power has diminished, comparatively speaking, as he's moved up in weight, which would be expected. Here's a simple chart showing his KO percentage in each of the respective weight divisions, starting with his first fight at the championship level:

Weight -- KO's/Fights -- Percentage

130 pounds -- 2/2 -- 100%

135 pounds -- 6/7 -- 85.7%

140 pounds -- 2/3 -- 66.7% *

147 pounds -- 7/12 -- 58.3%

154 pounds -- 3/6 -- 50%

160 pounds -- 0/2 -- 0%

* Includes his fight with Darrell Tyson

No, Forbes is not going to win this fight, but he has the capacity to survive. This looks like a fight between a guy looking ahead to a huge payday and perhaps not looking to take undue risks and a polished pro who is just not big enough and may wind up content to last till the end. That means a distance fight, so it's OVER the 9.5 rounds as is posted in the BetUS boxing betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 9.5 ROUNDS (-400) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Betting on boxing has never been so easy and you can get your bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook. Go to Other Sports: Boxing. Find tons of props on the fight and the fighters in the Future / props section as well!

(Charles Jay of www.eBookies.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)