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posted February 13, 2008 at 20:51 in Other Articles

BetUS Political Odds

TO BE DEMOCRATIC VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE

Hillary Clinton -- 27/20 (+135)

Barack Obama -- 37/20 (+185)

John Edwards -- 15/2 (+750)

Bill Richardson -- 17/2 (+850)

Ted Strickland -- 17/2 (+850)

Dennis Kucinich -- 20/1 (+2000)

Ted Kennedy -- 30/1 (+3000)

Bill Clinton -- 500/1 (+50000)

It is a doomed office. No President and Vice President have trusted each other since Jackson and Van Buren. Mistrust is inherent in the relationship. The Vice President has only one serious thing to do: that is, to wait around for the President to die."

-- Arthur Schlesinger Jr., The Atlantic Monthly, May 1974

If that last line in particular is true, maybe a couple of names on this list would qualify. Surely Hillary would probably be happy to ascend to the office "by any means necessary." Of course, none of that is a joke to Ted Kennedy, for obvious reasons.

But let's take a trip down the list, keeping in mind, for the sake of disclosure, that I am sort of a interested "party" (see below).

HILLARY CLINTON -- 27/20

-- This is moot. There is no way she would ever play second banana, not from the position of "inevitability" she has been in previously. In fact, I would expect her to sit it out or even undermine Obama is she didn't get nominated.

BARACK OBAMA -- 37/20

-- I think he would take a second spot, but because his star power would have the potential to overshadow even Hillary, I doubt it would ever be offered to him. Obama is clearly going to position himself for a 2012 run if he doesn't win the nomination this time around, but I'm not sure the way for HIM to do it would be to run on a ticket that could conceivably lose.

JOHN EDWARDS -- 15/2

-- I would doubt very seriously whether he would do it a second straight time, or whether anyone would want him to. After all, he has shown a disappointing degree of support in the South in the primary process, and that's what one would normally look to him for. The odds would be against him being able to deliver Southern states, particularly if John McCain and the Republicans were to strategize in that direction on their ticket. Maybe Edwards can run for vice president in the "other" America he keeps talking about.

BILL RICHARDSON -- 17/2

-- There is some value here. Lots of it, I think. Richardson is a very logical choice, because he has credentials, with a cabinet post, seven terms in Congress, the ambassadorship to the U.N. and governorship of New Mexico. In fact, he was probably the most qualified presidential candidate the Democrats had. Plus, he's Hispanic, which may help to solidify that voting bloc, and is from the Southwest, always desirable for the Dems. He'd also happily play a subordinate role. This is a very long price for him.

TED STRICKLAND -- 17/2

-- He's endorsed Hillary Clinton. Strickland won the governor's chair in Ohio with 60% of the vote, and as everyone knows, Ohio has been a major battleground in the last couple of elections.

DENNIS KUCINICH -- 20/1

-- No way. Much too liberal and radical, even for the Democrats. And he's gotten no momentum in two aborted campaigns.

TED KENNEDY -- 30/1

-- He's got too much power as a senator to ever give that up. And that's what he'd have to do. If Kennedy wanted to be "one heartbeat away,' he would have given it another try a long time ago.

BILL CLINTON -- 500/1

-- Now this one is intriguing. Let's see, if Hillary wins, she can decorate the Oval Office and then step down gracefully and.......never mind. Please forgive me.

I would make Richardson a favorite here, though I would concede there's a decent chance the "winner" could be someone who is not even posted. Indeed, there have been some viable names left out of this list. Here are a few of them:

EVAN BAYH -- He is very high on the Democrats' list, because the Indiana senator offers a moderate for the ticket. That could be important for the independent vote. His drawbacks are that if Obama wins the nomination he doesn't offer geographical balance, and Indiana will probably vote Republican regardless. I would make him no more than 11/2, keeping in mind that Richardson's number should be much "tighter."

JIM WEBB -- The newly-elected Democratic senator from Virginia beat out George Allen, who was being talked about for a while as a prime Republican possibility for the presidency. Webb is a former Secretary of the Navy and Assistant Secretary of Defense - in a Republican administration. He is also anti-Iraq war, and can more than hold his own in a toe-to-toe with McCain. He has a son that recently served in Iraq. Moderate and articulate, you are going to be hearing his name in this dialogue. CJ (that's me) would make him 12/1.

RALPH NADER -- Hey, if this is the way they can keep him from running an independent candidacy and "screwing up" their chances, as he was accused of twice, then we must put a price on him. Mine would be 100/1.

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(Charles Jay was the 2004 presidential candidate of the Personal Choice Party, and is also the 2008 nominee. He says he will place odds on himself at the appropriate time. He is currently a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)