posted June 5, 2008 at 19:22 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

I was surprised to see the BetUS racebook future book offering this incredibly interesting prop bet on Big Brown. The bet, which asks whether or not Big Brown will remain undefeated in 2008, has a decided flaw to it.

The truth is that Big Brown probably won’t race after the 2008 Belmont Stakes. Therefore, if you do believe that Big Brown will win the 2008 Belmont Stakes by the huge margin that every expects him to win by, then taking the 2 to 5 BetUS online wagering odds are an exceptional bet.

This is also true if you believe that Big Brown will lose in the 2008 Belmont Stakes to Casino Drive. The off track betting odds on Big Brown to beat Casino Drive in the 2008 Belmont Stakes are 1 to 3. Yet the odds on Big Brown to not remain undefeated in 2008, which I assume means the Belmont Stakes, is 9 to 5.

Either BetUS online racebook captains failed to add the line “after the Belmont Stakes” or we all just found a chance to make some serious money betting against Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont Stakes. 9 to 5 to get every other horse in the Belmont, including the terrifically balanced Casino Drive, is just terrific.

It’s also terrific odds if you believe that Big Brown will run again in 2008 after the Belmont Stakes.

Let me put it in perspective for you. Big Brown is a 1 to 3 favorite to win the Belmont Stakes. The prop bet for Big Brown against the rest of the field is actually 2 to 1 which are somewhat better odds then the 9 to 5 we could be betting if we do not believe that Big Brown will run again in 2008.

So the advantages to wagering on Big Brown at 9 to 5 to not go undefeated in 2008 is that we get Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes and then, if he does end up racing again in 2008, we get every horse to face Big Brown after the Belmont Stakes.

Will that happen? My thinking is that if the hoof is as solid as all of his connections are saying it is, then Big Brown might very well run again in 2008. I do not think that the hoof is as solid as everybody is saying, but that is beside the point.

The point is that if Big Brown does run again in 2008 then getting 9 to 5 on every horse he faces in every field he runs in are excellent odds. Why? Because if Big Brown does step onto the track again in 2008, I can almost guarantee that he will not go undefeated.

As good as Big Brown is, things get ratcheted up during the summer when the four and five year old horses step onto the track for the big money and when lightly raced three-year olds, having not gone through the rigmarole of the Triple Crown, suddenly blossom into major players.

Ever heard of a horse named Curlin? What about a nice little horseout here on the West Coast named Heat Seeker? How about Tiago?

Then, there’s the filly Zenyatta who also is undefeated and, in my estimation, might be one of the top five race horses in the world.

Then, of course, there is the Todd Pletcher trained Harlem Rocker who could cause some serious waves in those major summer races.

So playing Big Brown to not go undefeated in 2008 at 9 to 5 are really good sports betting odds.

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