posted May 6, 2008 at 14:12 in Tennis Betting Trends

Rome, Italy – In the second quarter of the ATP Masters Series in Rome, World No.3 Novak Djokovic and No.7 David Nalbandian flank opposing sides of the section, inextricably slotted for a quarterfinal online betting clash– a happenstance that if it were actually to emerge, should prove to be interesting for the tennis betting community at BetUS Sportsbook. If for no other reason but to gage Djokovic’s form on clay – something that almost happened in Monte Carlo last week, save for Djokovic pulling out of his first real test of the clay court season against Roger Federer in the semi-final with a...wait for it...sore throat. Yup, dear sports bettors: A SORE THROAT!!!OK, so it is not a Grand Slam semi-final, but (apologies to all Djokovic fans) to retire mid-match, down a set and a break in the second (the acute pain of a sore throat is obviously more intense under such dire circumstances) at a Masters Series event is almost as bad. Sorry, but unless you are incapacitated in some way, you finish out the match. Tennis greats like Pete Sampras and Andrei Agassi did. Heck, even Federer, when playing against Djokovic at the Australian Open earlier this year, gripped with mono –albeit unknowingly – did, tasting every defeating point in a match that could only have been classed a crushing point in his career to the very excruciating end.

What was more frustrating was the fact that at the time of Djokovic’s ill-timed malady, he entered the online tennis wagering match tipped as the slight favourite on the money line at -130 over Federer, delicately poised at -110. How often does that happen in the betting markets? Djokovic is one of the tennis betting markets new starlets, winner of the 2008 Australian Open and AMS Indian Wells, but he is fast gaining a reputation for bailing from matches when the going gets tough. In fact, last year, he retired from a Grand Slam semi-final – Wimbledon, to be specific – withdrawing in the third set 3-6, 6-1, 4-1 against Nadal. The year before that, once again against Nadal, he withdrew from their quarterfinal encounter at Roland Garros, down two sets 6-4, 6-4. I guess he saw the writing on the wall.

After Djokovic handed Federer a resounding victory in the semi-final of the Australian Open, tennis bettors were anxious to determine what the clay court prospects were for both players. Especially, now as the clay court season is upon us, the French Open twinkling on the horizon, results at major tournaments like Monte Carlo would have far-reaching consequences in tennis betting markets. Face it, tennis bettors are interested in determining whether Federer or Djokovic could pose a viable threat to Nadal’s domination on clay this year– more to the point, whether either player could seriously bid for the French Open crown. As the refrain on Federer went “he cannot keep winning forever”, none more a fan of the said catchphrase than Djokovic, so on the same vein goes speculation on Nadal.

However, fast-forward three weeks into the clay-court season – Nadal successfully defending two of four hat trick titles, winning both the Monte Carlo Masters and the Barcelona Open –and the refrain seems to be but a barely audible whisper. I think the problem is people forget how good Nadal is on clay. Since launching his domination of clay, Nadal has lost but one match – to Federer in Hamburg last year – and amassed 103 match wins on clay. I realize I am digressing and this article is supposed to be about Novak Djokovic and his quarter...and I am getting there, I promise. It’s just impossible to talk about the clay court season and not mention Nadal. Or for that matter, the Federer/Nadal rivalry – that has featured in almost every final movement of a major clay-court event over the last three years.

So, to get back on track, I am going to go out on a limb (a delicately fragile one) and say that I doubt Djokovic will reach the final in Rome. There I said it.

The reason is that his section of the draw is littered with possible threats. A possible third round encounter with Igor Andreev (a solid clay-courter), then a potential quarterfinal clash with another clay-court guru, in the form of Fernando Gonzalez, who is coming off a title victory in Munich, or David Nalbandian, who won the title in Buenos Aires and finished runner-up in Acapulco, only serve tough obstacles for the Serbian starlet. Assuming he survives his quarter to reach the final four, the semi-final could potentially receive a rematch between Federer and Djokovic – the sore throat excuse so not an option anymore, Djokovic would actually have to win if he were to secure a premier position in the final movement of the Rome Masters on Sunday. Federer does not like to lose. Any great competitor will understand and respect this as a mark of a true champion and not for nothing, Federer’s championship credentials precede him in every tournament he contests. Thriving on challenges – you can bet he would relish the opportunity to avenge his loss to Djokovic with a complete trouncing. Should it come to it, I would bet on Federer.

In addition, reviewing Djokovic’s season – after he won the Australian Open, he crashed out of the second round in Marseille (losing to Gilles Simon). Moving ahead to the Pacific Life Open, after winning the title there, the following week he arrived in Miami to defend his Sony Ericsson Open title, only to crash out of his opening match, losing to qualifier Kevin Anderson. Strange results, but perhaps indicative of something deeper – an inability to come to terms with the expectation of winning matches (at least most of the time) that came with the territory when he won the 2008 Australian Open. Combined with a peculiar habit of quitting matches when the going gets tough, the promising tennis star is winning no fans. In his defence, Rome was not built in a day. So it goes with every great champion, it takes time, patience and seasoning to become a true champion – something that I am not convinced is fully in Djokovic’s repertoire.

So there you have it, a nice short break down for you of some of the exciting tennis betting options available at BetUS Sportsbook. Now that you are all read up, you are ready to start betting on tennis!

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.