posted March 27, 2008 at 12:54 in NBA Free Picks
NBA Betting Free Picks – Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets
The Dallas Mavericks, (45-26 SU, 30-37-4 ATS, 34-35-2 O/U), have gone from western conference power to a possible spot on the sideline come postseason time after dropping three consecutive games against a trio of the NBA’s best teams in the Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs.
On Tuesday, the Mavs played their first game without their all-star forward who suffered a sprained knee and ankle the Spurs on Sunday, beating the lowly Los Angeles Clippers 103-90.
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However, Dallas will face a much tougher task when they take on the desperate Denver Nuggets, (43-28 SU, 39-32 ATS, 41-30 O/U), who are just two games behind the Mavericks and one-half game behind Golden State Warriors in the race for the eighth and final spot in the western conference playoffs.
"We're up to the challenge," Mavs guard Jerry Stackhouse said. "We don't have to win out. But we all have to pick it up a little."
The Nuggets are back at home for the first time since running up the score on the young Seattle Supersonics, winning 168-116 on March 16.
The Nuggets come into tonight’s matchup riding a three-game winning streak in the BetUS.com Sportsbook that includes a resounding 120-106 spanking of the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday.
The teams have split two meetings in Dallas this season, so Thursday's game will determine the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Tonight’s matchup will decide the season tie-breaker as the teams have split two games this season, both in Dallas.
The Mavericks have won six of their last ten while going 5-5 against the spread over the same span while Denver has gone 8-2 both, straight up and against the spread in their last ten games.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my analysis and NBA Betting Picks.
The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win.
The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Southwest.
The Over is 5-0 in Mavericks last five road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
The Over is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
The Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
The Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Denver.
Analysis: While I like the Mavericks to undoubtedly win this contest, I just don’t see them routing the Mavericks in this contest. While I believe that Dallas is too soft in the low post to make a real dent in the western conference playoffs, they can definitely hang with the Nuggets even without Nowitzki.
NBA Free Picks: Dallas +8 Points/Under 217 Total Points
08:05 PM EST NBA Betting Odds
Dallas Mavericks +8 -110
Denver Nuggets -8 -110
Over 217 -110
Under 217 -110
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