posted September 5, 2008 at 13:45 in NFL Betting Trends
NFL Betting Week One Home Dogs
It's Week 1 of the NFL season, which means it's time to start looking at home dogs. Here's a peak at which teams are being underrated on their home-field:
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (+2)
In the past, the Baltimore Ravens plus points at home was usually money in the bank but this week is another story. Raw rookie quarterback Joe Flacco is going to be making his first career NFL start, which could really hurt the Ravens. Rookies make mistakes and mistakes is usually the only way the Bengals defense looks good. The Ravens won't allow a lot of rushing yards but they might not gain a whole lot themselves with Willis McGahee banged up.
Football Free Picks: Bengals -2
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (+3)
The New York Jets will be breaking in their new quarterback, Brett Favre, and it seems like a foregone conclusion that they will be 1-0. The Jets better realize that Favre will help them win games but he won't carry them by himself.
The Miami Dolphins have had a solid offseason rebuilding a 1-15 squad to the point where they could now finish 7-9 or 8-8 and nobody would be too shocked. Look for them to spoil Favre's debut with the Jets as Chad Pennington will get some revenge on his former team.
Football Free Picks: Dolphins +3
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (+3)
The Tennessee Titans always play the Jacksonville Jaguars tough. The Jags know that first hand as they allowed nearly 300 rushing yards to the Titans in last year's opener.
The Jags have plenty of problems and distractions. Some receivers aren't healthy, their defensive line isn't as strong and one of their offensive linemen is still in a hospital after being shot several times earlier this week.
Jeff Fish is a smart head coach and even though his team is underrated again, they consistently find a way to get the job done.
Football Free Picks: Titans +3
Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons (+3)
The Atlanta Falcons, similar to the Baltimore Ravens, will be starting a rookie quarterback at home and are an underdog. Matt Ryan is polished and more ready than Baltimore's starter, which means this game could be a real test for the Detroit Lions.
But the Lions are underrated themselves and they might be a team that surprises this season. With an improved defense and an offense with a multitude of weapons, as long as they avoid mistakes, they should be able to win this game.
Football Free Picks: Lions +3
Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
The Cleveland Browns have a very difficult schedule and it starts with a tough Week 1 contest with the NFC favorite Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas has looked lackadaisical in the preseason but the Browns have been banged up – which factors more?
Look for the Cowboys to start sluggish but end up with the victory.
Football Free Picks: Browns +5.5
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (+3)
Laying points on the road with the Arizona Cardinals is like getting in a yelling match with Bill O'Reilly: you're not likely to win.
The 49ers entered University of Phoenix Stadium and beat the Cardinals late last season and now they've upgraded their offense and defense, which makes them a pretty nice home dog.
The Cards should have problems running the ball, which is a big no-no on the road. Look for the 49ers to get the job done and start on the right foot.
Football Free Picks: 49ers +120
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (+3)
Monday Night Football caps off with two bitter rivals and you can be sure that the Oakland Raiders aren't happy being the underdog. The key will be the running games for both teams in what could be a high-scoring affair.
The Broncos run defense was brutal last year and unless it is improved, Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas will use them as a treadmill. Conversely, the Broncos will be without wideout Brandon Marshall, who is suspended for the first contest, which means Denver will need to run the ball with Selvin Young to be successful.
The Broncos have a big advantage at quarterback, which should be the difference in the end.
Football Free Picks: Broncos -3
