South Florida Bulls at Central Florida Knights Odds

Saturday, September 6

It's a battle for bragging rights in the Sunshine State on Saturday, as the South Florida Bulls (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) make the short trip to Orlando to take on the Central Florida Knights (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) in college football action. The game is slated to kick off at 7 PM ET at Bright House Networks Stadium (natural turf).

BetUS NCAA Betting Odds: SOUTH FLORIDA -13.5, Total 50.5

Here are some of the NCAA football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* SFLA has won four of its last five games SU

* SFLA has won five of its last seven road games SU

* SFLA has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total

* UCF has won eight of its last nine games SU

* UCF has covered five of its last eight games

* UCF has played seven of its last eight games UNDER the total

* UCF has won its last six home games SU

* UCF has covered five of its last seven home games

* UCF has played its last four home games UNDER the total

To assess this matchup, it might be instructive to take a look at last year's game between these two schools. In that one, Central Florida scored a touchdown in the first quarter and could only manage a field goal the rest of the way. The Knights managed only 12 first downs on the day. They turned it over three times in the first quarter. Central Florida quarterback Mike Greco had a 42-yard pass play, but he gained only 29 yards on his other 15 attempts.

South Florida out-gained UCF by 398 yards. They out-scored UCF 35-2 in the second half. Kevin Smith, who had been averaging 172 rushing yards a game, was held to just 55. Matt Grothe had 212 yards passing and 100 yards rushing. Central Florida converted on just two of 15 third-down situations. Final score: South Florida 64, Central Florida 12.

The reason why all this is instructive is that Smith, who led the nation with 2567 rushing yards, has left school, depositing himself in the Detroit Lions backfield, leaving people like Greco to handle an increased burden in the UCF offense. This program is simply not far enough along to be replacing a one-man show like Smith that easily. Greco had 57 yards on the ground in the opener against South Carolina State, but only 90 yards passing. He is hardly equipped to exploit USF's loss of corners Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams. And it's doubtful any of the freshmen runners George O'Leary is looking at will find the going very easy against this rock-ribbed South Florida front, which still includes All-American George Selvie, who may terrorize Greco all day.

Grothe, who only threw eight times in the opening-game blowout of Tennessee-Martin, is not the most explosive passer (14 TD's, 14 INT's last year), but he is surprisingly elusive as a runner (872 yards in '07) and generally makes good decisions in USF's offense, which leans toward the conservative and will make more use of talented running back Mike Ford.

This is often billed as the "I-4 War," after the Florida interstate the connects Tampa and Orlando. But the Knights don't have enough artillery to offer anything more than token resistance. There are too many fundamental and matchup edges in favor of South Florida, the 13.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: SOUTH FLORIDA -13.5 ****

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com gives it more than the old college try as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)