NBA Western Conference Analysis – Hornets to Sting Lakers, Spurs

The New Orleans Hornets stunned the betting world with a 50-31-1 ATS record last season after Chris Paul emerged as the heir apparent to the throne as King Point Guard. Paul’s ascension in the Big Easy has made life easier for Tyson Chandler and Peja, and allowed the Hornets to average 100.9 points per game.

It’s their defense that was staggering however. They allowed only 95.6 points per game, ranking them as third best defense in the offensively savvy Western Conference. Why else do you think that they sit as +600 favorites to win the conference?

There are two teams that stand in their way. One is the San Antonio Spurs, who the Hornets held a tie breaker over in 2007-08. In my opinion, San Antonio is on the decline. They proved that they could still hang with the best-of-the-best, but San Antonio is also fading on the offensive end.

The Spurs were undoubtedly the most difficult team to score on in the West with a 90.6 points against average. However, their low 95.4 points for average kept them on the bad end of the betting line because they failed to cover the spread. They went 38-44 ATS, despite the fact that they were winning games. San Antonio has to prove it can win by larger margins before we can be sure that they can protect their betting investor’s cash flow.

That’s why the Hornets are a better play than the Spurs. They’ve got a more resilient offense, a great coach (no offense against Popavich) and have the best point-guard in the game. On top of that, they’re much, much younger overall than the Spurs. If the Spurs are slipping, the Hornets are the team likely to assume the mantle that they leave behind.

The problems begin with the team that never left the top of the mountain, and currently sits squarely atop it. The LA Lakers, who are +125 favorites, stand as the stalwart defending champions of the West. Though they were crushed by the Celtics in the NBA Finals, there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Kobe and Pau Gasol will return with a desire to prove that they are still the elite of the NBA.

Don’t forget that the dynamic duo of Kobe and Pau only had a few months to gel before hitting the Finals. With a summer of “rest” (if that’s what you call the Olympics), the Lakers will return to improve on their 108.6 scoring average. That can only go up as Pau and Kobe rip through the regular season. Don’t be surprised when the Lakers emerge as the top scoring team in the West.

So the question remains: Can the Hornets go toe-to-toe with Kobe? This is what I’ll say – James Posey knows. Posey has nose for Championship team. He “drifted” to Miami and won gold there. He signed with Boston, which was almost a no-brainer. Now he left Boston to cash in with New Orleans. He was undoubtedly an x-factor for the Celtics, and had the brand of leadership they needed.

Can he be the same player and leader for a young Hornets team in need of guidance?

If history has a way of repeating itself, Posey will be playing for another championship. And, if history tells us anything, he’ll gladly sit in the background and let the superstars take all the credit until the playoffs with a big smile, and a fat check in hand.

There’s something brewing in the Big Easy. And I have a sinking feeling that the Lakers are the one that get pulled under in the wake of New Orleans’ rise to glory.