posted October 10, 2008 at 13:12 in MLB Free Picks
Rays, Red Sox Renew Bad Blood in Game 1 of ALCS
After watching last week’s atrocious, (fixed?) MMA fight featuring Kimbo Slice and Seth Petruzelli, I’m hoping the Tampa Bay Rays (100-66 SU, 77-87-2 O/U, 88-78 RL), and Boston Red Sox (98-68 SU, 72-80-14 O/U, 83-83 RL) add some pugilistic punch to their ALCS showdown that kicks off with tonight’s Game 1 matchup at Tropicana Field.
The two teams have already had several altercations this season – and another incident could be one up-and-in pitch away from renewing their season-long brouhaha.
"We had the one incident this year. That to me also is ancient history," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "The rivalry is being built because we're good. This year truly is building into a legitimate rivalry, whereas in the past I think it was more fabricated."
Okay, enough with my wishful fight fantasies, there is a baseball game to be played – and money to be made in the BetUS Sportsbook by making another winning wager.
While the Boston Red Sox are the defending World Series champs and have loads of postseason experience, they will be facing a Rays team that clearly has absolutely no fear of their veteran-laden counterparts.
"We don't want to get ahead of ourselves," left fielder Carl Crawford said, "but we definitely feel good about our chances."
And feel good, they should!
The Rays went 57-24 at Tropicana Field to record the best home record in all of baseball this season and an even more impressive 6-0 in one-run games against Boston while winning their season series 10-8.
Tampa Bay will hand the ball to staff ace James Shields, (15-8, 3.58 ERA, 1-0, 4.26 postseason) who gave up three runs to the Chicago White Sox in 6.1 innings in Game 1 of their ALCS series opener but managed to escape with a win in Tampa Bay’s 6-4 win.
Shields will need to be better tonight, but really ‘locked in’ against the Red Sox at home this season, going 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA.
"I just have to go out there and pitch my game. I'm one not to change anything," said Shields. "I've had a lot of success this year doing what I do."
The Red Sox will counter with their staff leader in wins this season, right-hander Daisuke ‘Dice-K’ Matsuzaka to open the series.
Matsuzaka also gave up three runs in his only postseason start this year. Matsuzaka escaped without recording a decision, giving up eight hits and walking three in just five innings last Friday.
"As far as any one of our starters that gets the ball, I have confidence in all of them," catcher Jason Varitek told Boston's official Web site. "They've been part of this team winning all year."
Matsuzaka (0-0, 5.40 ERA) went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA against the Rays in three starts this season, lasting just five innings in each start while striking out 17 and walking a whopping 11 batters.
"We're going to have to wait him out and see how he's throwing," Rays third baseman Evan Longoria said. "Walks are so important, and if he's going to come out and do what he normally does, he usually walks a ton of guys and throws a lot of pitches early. If we can get him on the ropes early, we've really got to take advantage of that."
Red Sox slugger David ‘Big Papi’ Ortiz. is 7-for-14 with four doubles, two homers and six RBI against Shields in his career.
Tampa Bay won eight of nine at home against the Red Sox and went a staggering 24-2 at home this season when 30,000 or more showed u at home.
Boston will be without third baseman Mike Lowell for the entire series.
Here is a look at the key trends for each ballclub, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Picks.
The Red Sox are 6-0 in Matsuzaka’s last 6 Friday starts.
The Red Sox are 5-0 in Matsuzaka’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Rays are 4-0 in Shields' last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
The Rays are 5-0 in Shields' last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
The Under is 5-0-1 in Matsuzaka’s last 6 starts with 6 days of rest.
The Under is 5-0 in Shields' last 5 Friday starts.
The Over is 4-0 in Matsuzaka’s last 4 starts vs. Rays.
The Red Sox are 2-5 in Matsuzaka’s last 7 starts vs. Rays.
The Rays are 2-6 in Shields' last 8 starts vs. Red Sox.
MLB Odds
Boston Red Sox + 1½ -230
Daisuke Matsuzaka –R -102
Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +190
James Shields –R +190
Over 8 -115
Under 8 -105
Analysis: While I fully believe that Dice-K is a better pitcher than Tampa Bay’s James Shields, I can’t in good conscience, advise any BetUS MLB Sportsbook bettor to take the Red Sox tonight!
The fact of the matter is that the Rays are literally, fearless and have beaten back all challengers all season long – including the Boston Red Sox. I like them to find a way to win again tonight with Shields dialing it up a notch at home.
MLB Odds: Rays 4 Red Sox 2
