Patriots Look To Get Back On Track against Revamped 49ers

The New England Patriots, (2-1 SU, 1-2-0 ATS, 1-2-0 O/U), were surprisingly routed by the Miami Dolphins on the road two weeks ago, losing 38-13 to record their first loss of the season.

The San Francisco 49ers, (2-2 SU, 2-2-0 ATS, 1-2-1 O/U), were soundly beaten by the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, losing 31-17 on the road.

Now, the Patriots will look to shake off their humbling loss and have had two weeks to prepare for the rebuilding 49ers after giving up a whopping 461 yards of total offense and a total of five touchdowns orchestrated by Fins’ running back Ronnie Brown.

"It was one of the ugliest defeats I've ever been a part of," Patriots cornerback Ellis Hobbs said. "The craziest thing about this loss is that not one thing beat us. ... We lost it as a team."

The Patriots will need a better effort out of second string quarterback Matt Cassel, who made just his second start since high school after watching him struggle in completing 19 of 31 passes for 131 yards with one touchdown, one interception and three sacks.

"A lot of them just came down to 'look it happens and there are going to be times when you lose,'" Cassel said. "You just have to stay positive and know that you are going to come out and continue to work hard and get better."

The 49ers also got an erratic performance from thief first-year starter, J.T. O'Sullivan who completed 18 of 36 passes for 257 yards and one touchdown, but also threw two interceptions in the end zone and was sacked six times, losing one fumble.

The Niners can’t pin their loss on O’Sullivan’s performance as the team’s defense allowed 363 passing yards to New Orleans, including four plays of 33 yards or more.

"The explosive plays that occurred, they are inexcusable," said 49ers coach Mike Nolan, who does not plan to make changes to his defensive lineup. "There are some mental lapses, mental errors. It wasn't like somebody got whipped on an all-out blitz.

Here is a look at the game’s key trends, followed by my analysis and NFL Wagering Free Picks:

The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.

The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 5.

The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games in October.

The Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games following a ATS loss.

The Over is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 games in October.

The Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games on grass.

NFL Odds

New England Patriots -3 -120

San Francisco 49ers +3 Ev

Over 41 -110

Under 41 -110

Analysis: I’ll keep this pick short and right to the point since there’s really not much guesswork to making this selection. BetUS NFL bettors should take the Patriots to cover the spread while likely winning outright, with a fine defensive effort and just enough offense from Matt Cassel.

NFL Free Picks: Patriots -3/ Over 41 Total Points