posted May 13, 2008 at 16:00 in Triple Crown Articles

Like a hammer, it came down hard onto the collective heads of BetUS racebook and online betting fans everywhere. First, the news that Recapturetheglory, a tremendously gifted animal out of the Louis Roussel barn and one of the top sports betting contenders to take down the seemingly invincible Big Brown, had developed a fever and, therefore, would not make it to the gate in the Preakness Stakes. Then, the other news came. Harlem Rocker, perhaps the only horse capable of challenging the “now” super-horse Big Brown in the Preakness Stakes, was not going to run.

Harlem Rocker had everything going for him, an undefeated record, a style suited to the tight turns of the Pimlico Racecourse, and the best trainer in the nation in Todd Pletcher. Oh, well. His connections have obviously drunk the Big Brown Kool-Aid like everyone else in the horse racing world.

For online racebook fans, finding a winner to take down Big Brown is all about the challenge. We don’t read the racing forms everyday, put money into our sports betting racebook accounts, take low odds on horses or high odds on horses, spend money like a Starbuck’s addiction because making money is the only thing we are interested in. No, for us true online racebook fans it’s all about the challenge.

The challenge is to find the winner in this year’s Preakness even though Big Brown looks practically unbeatable.

I’m going to highlight a few reasons why Big Brown could be beat in the Preakness. Don’t worry online betting enthusiasts; I’ll have a list of horses later this week who I believe can do it as well as a write-up on why Big Brown won’t lose the Preakness. But this article is all about why Big Brown will lose. As you can see, there aren’t thatmany reasons but each reason is as valid as, well, the reasons Dutrow’s charge could have lost the Kentucky Derby.

Why Big Brown Will Lose the Preakness Stakes

1. He’s “over the top” - - This pretty much means that he ran as good as he could in the Kentucky Derby and should regress in this race. Now, I’m not exactly sure how valid this is, but we are talking about a horse that only has four lifetime starts. This will be Big Brown’s second race in the span of two weeks.

2. If he’s not over the top, then he regressed in the Derby and won’t bounce back in the Preakness - - This is a hard one to swallow, but it makes sense. Big Brown had a better speed rating in the Florida Derby then he did in the Kentucky Derby. Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 had a better speed rating in the Wood Memorial then he did in the Kentucky Derby. FuPeg ran like crap in the Preakness. Could the same happen to Big Brown?

3. His soft feet will be his undoing in the Preakness - - This is actually a very valid argument. First, just because he goes into the race with good feet doesn’t mean that his feet will remain good throughout the whole race. The problem with Big Brown’s feet is that on the Pimlico Racecourse a number of things could happen. We all remember what happened to Barbaro in 2006. I’m not predicting anything horrible happening to Big Brown, but soft feet are soft feet. Eventually, they’ll do a horse in. It doesn’t matter how good your trainer and vet are.

4. The new shooters he faces in the Preakness are better then the horses that he faced in the Kentucky Derby - - I’m not sure if this is the case. Then again, Denis of Cork looked awful in the Illinois Derby but bounced back very well in the Kentucky Derby. Is Denis of Cork really that good? With the exception of the ill-fated Eight Belles, the rest of the Kentucky Derby field pretty much stunk up the joint. That means that Kentucky Bear, Macho Again, Racecar Rhapsody (should he run!) and Riley Tucker and Giant Moon could all be better than anything, besides Eight Belles, that Big Brown faced in the Derby.

5. He’s never raced a speedster like Tres Borrachos - - I’d be scared of three drunks going crazy on a racetrack as well! No, seriously, this takes some imagination, but the truth of the matter is that Beau C. Greeley, the trainer of Tres Borrachos is going to send his horse out there to run as fast as he can as far as he can. There’s no other reason why the son of Ecton Park would be in this race. Could Big Brown find himself in a speed duel? Will it matter? Who knows, but I doubt they will go 47 in the first half mile in the Preakness like they did in the Derby.

As my fellow BetUS online racebook fans can see, beating Big Brown is not going to be easy, but there are reasons to believe that it can be done. I’ll publish an article later this week highlighting why Big Brown won’t lose the Preakness as well as an End Zone piece regarding all of the fantastic Big Brown props that BetUS is offering for the Preakness. Finally, don’t forget to check out my article on the race itself!

Good luck!

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Racetrack bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Preakness Stakes.